On going project  

The focus of this ongoing project si to look at migrant networks and the possible role that might have in the spreading of the virus covid-19 in Italy. I propose a spatial econometric model with a distance matrix that proxies the ``social" proximity of Italian provinces, to look at the ``spillover effects" that the government policies have caused in terms spreading of the virus. The purpose of the paper is two-fold: on the one hand it aims at showing the possible endogeneity of the policy instruments used highlighting the counter-productive effects obtained by neglecting the response of individuals; on the other hand it aims at measuring those effects by considering a novel and so far unused measure of network that is not observed producing relevant effects in ``normal" times, but it does in special circumstances. Networks are used widely to implement simulations of virus spreading, but they are mostly approximated by data on human movements in ``normal” times, such as number of flights by route, number of commuters taking the trains etc…, and are most often assumed to be exogenous to policy implementation. In this paper I show that other types of networks that generate less physical interactions in normal times, such as migrant networks, in special circumstances can find themselves ``activated" and produce important effects.